Fewer people in Germany were planning a holiday between September and November 2026 than in the same period a year earlier. The Holiday Planning Index (UPI), published in September, stood at 81 points; autumn 2025 provides the benchmark of 100 points. Of those surveyed, 55 per cent said they planned to take at least one holiday in the following three months, compared with 61 per cent a year earlier. These findings come from a survey conducted in late August – not a new November survey or a winter forecast.
This decline reveals neither how many hotel rooms are available nor whether overnight stays have already failed to materialise. The index records stated intentions. Actual overnight stays and occupancy in individual regions are different measures, captured using different data.
What the autumn index measures
The UPI is a joint research project by the German Institute for Tourism Research at Fachhochschule Westküste and the German Tourism Association. For the autumn wave, infas quo surveyed 1,000 people aged 18 to 79 from the German-speaking population living in private households in Germany in late August. The online survey used quotas for gender, age, federal state and level of education. Respondents were asked about holidays involving at least one overnight stay that they planned to take in the coming three months.
The figure of 81 means that the index of intended trips was 19 per cent below the benchmark of 100 for autumn 2025. It does not mean that 81 per cent of people are going away, that hotel occupancy is at 81 per cent or that demand is falling evenly across every destination. Alongside the overall figure, the presentation gives separate values for domestic and overseas trips: 80 and 83 points respectively. These sub-indices likewise describe travel intentions, not bookings already made.
The survey therefore shows a change in plans within a defined population group. It counts neither all actual trips nor every overnight stay. People who book later, change their minds or do not go ahead with a trip alter the gap between intention and reality. The DTV cites growing uncertainty and later decisions as a possible explanation for the results; this is the association’s interpretation, not a direct measurement of booking behaviour.
Overnight stays are a different measure
The official monthly tourism survey conducted by Destatis, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, counts arrivals and overnight stays in accommodation establishments. It also records available bed spaces and, for hotels with at least 25 rooms, monthly room occupancy. To calculate bed occupancy, Destatis measures overnight stays against available bed-days – in other words, the beds offered on the days an establishment is open.
These statistics answer a different question from a survey of travel plans: they record reported stays, not intentions before a trip begins. Their coverage also needs to be considered: the monthly survey includes accommodation establishments with at least ten bed spaces and campsites with at least ten pitches. Smaller providers below these thresholds are therefore not part of the survey. Results are also published with a time lag, and provisional figures may be revised.
A lower national planning index can therefore coexist with stable or even rising numbers of overnight stays in individual places. Relevant factors include where people travel, how many guests arrive from abroad, how long they stay and which types of accommodation are in demand. A nationwide survey is no substitute for occupancy data for a particular valley, coastal region or urban district.
No automatic signal on prices
The UPI does not provide a direct forecast of room prices either. It measures neither the capacity available in a particular place nor individual establishments’ prices, booking levels or changes in those levels. Even lower overall demand can have different effects depending on the destination, day of the week, season, events calendar and supply. The index therefore offers no general promise of cheaper overnight stays.
For travellers, the autumn figure is an indication of more cautious planning among the population – nothing more. Anyone wanting to know whether a particular hotel has availability on a specific date and what a room costs needs up-to-date information from the provider. Anyone wishing to assess whether autumn actually brought fewer overnight stays must wait for the subsequent official figures. Only a comparison of these different sets of data will show whether stated intentions translate into actual trips.
Original reviewed by the editors · 11 November 2026
